The inmediate political future of Spain is uncertain

USPA NEWS - The lack of a clear majority in the result of the legislative elections held last Sunday in Spain has clouded Spanish politics, until then tense due to the confrontation between the right and the left. The first one won the elections through the conservative Popular Party, but the Socialist Party debacle that many analysts expected did not take place and now, three days after the appointment with the polls, the numbers do not come out.

The 136 deputies obtained by the conservative Popular Party could only secure the government for the conservative candidate, Alberto Núñez Feijóo, if they join the 33 from the extreme right, the five from the Basque nationalists and the two from two local formations from Navarra and the Canary Islands. This hypothetical coalition would govern with an absolute majority. Hypothetical because the Basque nationalists have denied their support for the conservative candidate, just like the Canarian deputy, and even the extreme right does not guarantee its support for the investiture of Núñez Feijóo.

The Socialist Party of the still president of the Spanish Government, Pedro Sánchez, does not have the accounts either. To his 122 deputies he could add the 31 from the communist Sumar coalition -with which he is fully in tune-, but to continue in office he would need the support of the Republicans and the Catalan separatists, with seven deputies each;  and the support or abstention of the Basque nationalists, the Canarian deputy, the Galician deputy and, finally, the extreme right. According to Pedro Sánchez, the support of the Catalan independentists, led by the fugitive from Justice Carles Puigdemont, seems possible and the Socialists will explore that path. But the independentists have raised the price of their support: an independence referendum in Catalonia and amnesty for all independentists politicians convicted of sedition and other crimes. Two red lines that the Socialist Party seems not to want to cross.

The ghost of a repetition of the elections hovers over Spanish politics. The winner of the elections on Sunday and conservative candidate, Alberto Núñez Feijóo, defoliates the daisy of the investiture. If he doesn't have enough support, it will be a failed investiture. But the conservatives pressure him so that, even in that case, he tries to be elected president of the Spanish Government. And they remember the case of the now-defunct centrist Ciudadanos party, which won regional elections in Catalonia and refused to stand for investiture. Today, Ciudadanos no longer exists and Catalonia is governed by pro-independence parties.

At the opposite extreme is the acting President of the Government and Socialist candidate for re-election. Pedro Sánchez is confident about the possibility of gathering the necessary support and appearing for the investiture. In the negotiations he will face a compact block made up of the Republicans and the Catalan secessionists, who have come together to be stronger. The demands are extreme: a consensual and binding referendum on the independence of Catalonia, and amnesty for all those convicted of crimes related to secession.

The Spanish classical socialists reject this possibility. It cannot be, they warn, "that the Government of Spain depends on a fugitive from Justice. It is inadmissible." But his strength within the party is low. And the continual lies and manipulations of the acting Prime Minister do not invite optimism. Pedro Sánchez assured on Tuesday that any negotiation with the Catalans must conform to the Constitution. But he also said that he would not appoint any ministers from the extreme left and seated five at Cabinet meetings;  he said that he would not forgive the promoters of the Catalan secessionist attempt and granted amnesty to almost all of them. Among many other actions that reveal the personality of a politician accustomed to using the arguments according to the electoral revenue that can bring him.

The inmediate political future of Spain is uncertain. Businessmen require politicians to negotiate to reach agreements. But the spirit of the Transition that, after the death of the dictator Francisco Franco in 1975, allowed parties of ideologies as disparate as Francoism, socialism, communism, nationalism and moderate liberalism to shake hands for a more important objective -the transition from dictatorship to democracy- no longer exists. Many current politicians did not experience the Transition. They do not understand the importance of negotiating to reach agreements. Their world begins and ends in the chair they occupy.